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Combative VP Debate: Did It Have An Impact on the Swing States?

My whole family tuned into the Vice Presidential debate Thursday night to much entertainment, but did it have an impact on the swing states?  We used Attensity’s real-time Pipeline and our intelligent Analytics application to see what swing state voters are saying.  This blog will focus on Florida because I thought it would be interesting (I grew up there, lived there for almost 20 years and experienced the wide-range of voter types there (conservative Cubans, issues oriented Seniors, Democratic implants from New York, to name a few)).

Download the Vice Presidential Debate Analysis Details 10 2012 to see more from other swing states like Ohio, Iowa, Colorado, and others.

According to Social Media, most swing states had a higher positive review of Biden. Although some were totally negative on both candidates. That said.  Many voters didn’t like Biden’s “disrespectful smile” while Ryan spoke. They also criticized him for interrupting Ryan while he was answering questions. And while many commented about how they thought Ryan was “competent” and also said they felt sorry for him during Biden’s interruptions, there were also many who said he is “anti-women” and “dishonest.”

Both candidates had voters cheering them on in social media throughout and after the debate.  The voter intent was different from state to state.

Below is the sentiment view of voters in Florida. As you can see, while there was a lot of negativity for both candidates, the positive sentiment for Biden was double what Ryan had.

 

When it came to the opinions on the candidates in Florida, the majority felt sorry for Ryan and thought he was being dishonest and his comments were anti-women, while most thought Biden was being disrespectful and didn’t like his smile, but at the same time they thought he was “killing it.”

But the real test is voter intent.  We saw in Florida that many more said they would NOT vote for Romney than those who would and we saw that many more said they WOULD vote for Obama than those who said they would not.

Overall, who won?  If we use sentiment as the indicator then in 8 out of 9 states, Biden had the most positive sentiment. The only swing state where Ryan won on the  social sentiment-o-meter was in New Hampshire.  If we use voter intent as the barometer, then many more also said they would vote for Obama than Romney.

Now there certainly is bias in this data. While both candidates and their political parties are very active in social media. If you just look at followers of both the Obama and Romney Facebook pages and Twitter handles, Obama still has many more followers and therefore many more talking about him in social media.  We did, however, normalize for that in our analysis.

The next debate is coming up this week. Look out for more analysis on it from us!

So, who do you think won that last debate?